North Korea: Turning in the Wrong Direction

North Korea: Turning in the Wrong Direction

 

By Alexandre Mansourov

April 10, 2013

 

When Kim Jong Un assumed power, the world saw him as a young new leader who, given his education in Europe, might be reform-minded. Just over a year later, he comes across more like a reckless bully.

 

Since the beginning of 2013, the security situation on the Korean peninsula has taken a dramatic turn for the worse, following North Korea's satellite launch in December 2012, its third nuclear test in February 2013, and the passage of UN Security Council Resolutions 2087 and 2094, which condemned both tests and imposed new international sanctions on the North Korean regime.

 

Pyongyang's nuclear breakout has emboldened its young and untested leader to set aside decades-old security commitments made by his predecessors and to issue repeated threats of preemptive nuclear strikes against the North's enemies-the US, South Korea, and Japan.

Why is Pyongyang engaging in such reckless and confrontational behavior? Is there anything Seoul and Washington can do to alter this stance? Or is this mission impossible?

 

Pyongyang's Tactical Motives

 

Most experts are quick to dismiss the current round of North Korean threats and warnings as typical examples of Pyongyang's rhetorical grandstanding. They argue that the North is bluffing to get attention and compel Washington and Seoul to return to the dialogue table on terms favorable to the North.

 

They may be right. Pyongyang's tough talk is not likely to translate into hard-hitting action this time around. One sure sign is that there are no ominous indications on the ground of imminent military action such as the general mobilization of forces or troops concentrating in the border areas.

 

Nonetheless, these reckless and provocative threats should be taken seriously not only because they reflect the immaturity and shortsightedness of the new North Korean leadership, but also because they reveal the unambiguous "hostile intentions" the regime harbors towards Washington and its allies.

 

We have always known about these "hostile intentions," but now they have stated them on the record loud and clear. The recent barrage of pronouncements from Pyongyang has left an indelible negative impression in the minds of the American people, which will be hard to undo through any exchanges or negotiations any time soon, especially as long as the current regime stays in power in Pyongyang.

 

Bearing in mind that the North Korean system of governance still operates on the basis of a unified guidance principle and that there have been no visible signs of factionalism or internal political conflict, Kim Jong Un is the real mastermind behind these threats.

 

There is no evidence that he is being manipulated by some aging grey cardinal or clique of military hardliners from behind the scenes. As the man in charge, Kim Jong Un, not his advisors, has to take full responsibility for orchestrating the North's ongoing psychological offensive against the West and subsequent escalation of tensions on and around the Korean peninsula.

 

Moreover, the DPRK's official propaganda is using this artificially induced confrontation to highlight his crisis management skills and build a new legend of Kim as a super-hero who has the guts (배짱) and will power (의지력) to face down the "Almighty Evil Empire."

 

The real problem is that in contrast to his father, Kim Jong Un does not have a track record yet. At least Kim Jong Il had a record of stepping back from the brink. We knew basically what his limits were and what buttons to push to keep him behaving.

 

We don't know Kim Jong Un's limits, how far we can push him or whether or not he has any brakes. Hence, we must take his brinkmanship more seriously.

 

Is Kim Jong Un's primary audience domestic or the international community? ... Read on.

 

Source: 38north.org

 

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